In "normalizing relations" with the Chinese Communists, the Carter administration of the United States did not attempt to persuade the Peiping regime to renounce aggression against Taiwan. President Jimmy Carter believed it would be futile to hold out for such an assurance. The point was discussed but never pressed by the Americans.
Members of the Carter administration and correspondents writing on the defense of Taiwan have assumed that Chinese Communist attack is unlikely within the next several years. The mainland is said to lack amphibious capability or to have only a limited number of craft capable of crossing the Taiwan Straits and landing on the beaches of the island's west coast.
Strength of the Taiwan defenders is also cited. The armed forces of the Republic of China number about half a million men. Air Force and Navy are the elite forces. Thus far the Communists have never challenged ROC command of the air over the Taiwan Straits. During the 1958 Battle of Kinmen, free Chinese defenders chalked up a kill margin of 10 to 1 against Communist attack planes. The Navy has missile-carrying destroyers and frigates with which to combat Chinese Communist submarines and torpedo boats.
Military and political authorities of the Republic of China point to the unstable conditions on the Chinese mainland. Renewed hot war against Taiwan, they suggest, could give anti-Communist forces on the mainland opportunity to rise up. A counter-beachhead could be established on the mainland from the offshore islands of Kinmen or Matsu. These islands are within sight and sound of continental China, and are manned by sizable and well-equipped armies.
Assault from the mainland is obviously possible, provided the Communists were willing to pay the price. It could also be tempting under conditions of widespread popular unrest. The Chinese Communists recently resorted to military action in Vietnam, ostensibly to "teach the Vietnamese a lesson." That adventure may also have been undertaken for the purpose of taking the minds of the people of the mainland off the early failure of the "four modernizations" - a much touted reform program of the Chinese Communists that has not gotten off the ground.
In a recent interview with Marsh Clark of Time magazine, President Chiang Ching-kuo said the Chinese Communists would have to be prepared for casualties of from 1 to 3 million in an invasion of Taiwan, but that even so, the Republic of China should take all possible precautions. Asked if the Republic of China could defend itself, the President said:
"When we talk about the defense of Taiwan, we shouldn't just confine our thinking to the military area. War in the Taiwan Straits would be of such scope as to involve political as well as military actions and movements. So we should not confine our thinking to strength only in the military sense, but also political considerations.
"As far as the Republic of China is concerned, we have 17 million people, all of them concerned about their future, all of them peace-loving and trying very hard to preserve freedom and stability here. If any crisis should occur, they would unite to counter the challenge. That political solidarity and zeal to preserve our freedom would add to our military strength.
"To consider the other side, Communist China, if they were to take military action against us, many people there would oppose it and it would lead to the development of an anti-war movement and perhaps even a civil war. That possibility will prevent the Communists from taking military action against Taiwan.
"So we shouldn't just consider the military balance - how many airplanes and how many ships on this side and that side - but must also consider the political elements that would affect the situation. On the one hand, we need American manufactured weapons. On the other hand, we want to manufacture our own weapons. We would therefore have dual sources of supply in terms of our military requirements.
"The military strength on the mainland may increase from day to day, so our capability must also increase to meet the challenge from the other side. In the future, we want to be more self-reliant in weapons supply. We are also pleased to see that the United States is still concerned about Taiwan's stability and security. That gives us a feeling of confidence psychologically."
President Chiang's interviewer observed that the possibility of internal strife on the mainland had not deterred the Chinese Communists from invading Vietnam. He wondered whether "it is one thing for (Red) China to attack Vietnam, but would be quite another for Chinese to go to war against fellow Chinese."
The free Chinese chief executive agreed that these wars would not be the same. He said: "When they took military action against Vietnam, the Chinese Communists could find many excuses to justify it. But if they go to war against us, they would have to have a very good reason. This has to be looked at from a Chinese perspective. When the Republic of China was making a decision on nuclear matters, we adopted a firm policy not to manufacture any nuclear weapons. If we were to possess nuclear weapons, what would we use them for? Our only enemy is the Chinese Communist regime. But we don't want to kill any of our Chinese compatriots.
"If they dare to start any military action against the Republic of China, it would start a new political crisis on the mainland. You may recall what happened in 1958 at the time of the Chinese Communist bombardment of the island of Quemoy. They never even tried to invade the island, but it still caused some internal political trouble on the mainland. Peng Teh-huai was removed from office because of some differing policy assessments.
"Also, Vietnam and China are contiguous by land, but when you talk about military action between the mainland and Taiwan, you must consider the natural barrier between us - the Taiwan Straits - which is 100 miles at its narrowest and 120 miles at the broadest point. If they undertake such amphibious action, it would be a very risky enterprise on their part. They would have to be prepared to sacrifice 1 million, 2 million or even 3 million people in that action. It would also involve a great logistical and transport problem for them.
"But for our part, we can't simply rely on such assumptions for our safety, but must take all possible precautions. Our national defense policy places top priority on air and naval strength in order to defend the Taiwan Straits. And that's why we stress air and naval equipment when we seek to purchase military supplies from the United States."
American arms deliveries are continuing to the Republic of China despite the break in diplomatic relations and the opening of formal U.S. ties with the Chinese Communists, who object strenuously to such sales even while saying that they would welcome weapons from the United States if Washington "dared" to sell them. However, in reaching his unilateral recognition agreement with the Chinese Communists, President Jimmy Carter agreed that negotiations for arms sales to the ROC would not be conducted in 1979. Talks will be resumed in 1980.
Commenting on this point, the China News recently said: "If we are concerned about U.S. relations, it is because of the uncertainty about the sufficiency of the defensive weapon supply. No further sales of weapons are being negotiated this year, so this country really doesn't know the attitude that American representatives will assume in 1980. The Chinese Communists are going to use all the pressure at their command to persuade President Carter to deny us anything more modem than bows and arrows. In the past, Mr. Carter has been inclined to try to give the Chinese Communists what they want."
Visiting the Republic of China not long after President Chiang's remarks on defense, Dr. Thomas Paine, president and chief operations officer of the Northrop Corporation of the United States, said his company expects to be supplying Free China with even more modern fighter planes once the present contract for F5E fighters is completed in 1983. The F5Es are built at Taichung under a cooperative arrangement between Northrop and the Republic of China's Air Force.
Dr. Paine was not specific but said the planes would be more advanced than the F5E. This suggests that they could be F5Gs. The U.S. administration once declined to upgrade the F5Es because the United States military does not have need for the plane and President Carter has prohibited the development of new weapons solely for export.
The order from Northrop numbers 250 planes, of which 48 are to be equipped with Maverick missiles. The rest are armed with Sidewinder missiles.
Commenting on developments in the Republic of China's situation since his last visit to Taiwan in October of 1978, Dr. Paine said that while many things look different, nothing has really changed. His advice to Free China was to turn to nuclear power 100 per cent. "Use American technology," he said, "and save your gasoline for cars, ships, planes and other vehicles."
Having just visited Saudi Arabia, which Northrop is providing with F15s, Dr. Paine said that country is a firm and respectful friend of the Republic of China. The Saudis appreciate the technical assistance of Free China, he said, "be cause it is always easier to learn from someone who has gone down the same road before." Saudi Arabia was shocked, Dr. Paine said, by the U.S. break in diplomatic relations with the Republic of China. ''The Saudis disapproved of the change in the basic relationship," he said. "Believing that one should trust another person on the basis of friendship and character, even when conditions have changed, they say, 'If this happened in Taiwan, it can happen in other places, too.' "
The F5E with the Maverick missile is believed to be a match for anything in the Chinese Communist arsenal. But with Red China giving priority to military modernization, the question is whether that will still be the case by 1983. Dr. Paine said the decision on an improved plane would be made within two or three years and expressed optimism that it would be in the Republic of China's favor.
President Chiang was asked about the lengthy "normalization nightmare" and whether the reality had "proved as bad as the dream."
The chief executive replied: "We did everything possible to prevent that nightmare from actually taking place. However, it did occur. The first task for us was to face the reality and to manage the crisis imposed upon the nation, especially the adverse effects on society. We had to do something to minimize the unfortunate consequences. In the past months we have been doing everything possible to strengthen this society economically, socially, militarily and politically - and we have been taking every possible step to unite the country. We feel that only with internal solidarity can we meet the external blow. Aside from the steps that we have been taking to meet the challenge, we know that the Republic of China and the United States share many, many common interests and that close people-to-people relations between our two countries will never be terminated."
Mr. Clark called attention to the stock market decline after announcement of President Carter's recognition decision and then to the market's recovery. He inquired whether this should not be considered a "sign of confidence both domestically and internationally in Taiwan's future. "
The Republic of China's chief of state said: "If I were to say that the change of relations between the United States and the Republic of China, had had no. damaging effect at all on the Republic of China, that would be wrong. There has been some damage to the Republic of China during the past few months. In particular, there are still people in this country who feel hurt psychologically.
"At the end of this year the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty will come to an end, and that will become another key element in our relations. The Republic of China should do every thing possible to meet the new challenge. The two weeks after December 16 was the most un stable period. But after the government announced some decisive measures to meet the challenge, the situation became more stabilized. During that two-week period the stock market dropped and the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the NT dollar on the black market rose. And domestic and foreign investors seemed to be reconsidering their investments in the Republic of China. But it seems to us that since January the situation has improved greatly and is now quite stable. In managing the crisis, the first two weeks was. the toughest period."
President Chiang expressed the view that the Mutual Defense Treaty should be kept in effect, an attitude possibly indicating that should the suit brought by Senator Barry Goldwater and others be successful, President Carter would have to submit his notification terminating the treaty to the U.S. Congress or Senate, where its prospects would be uncertain. The notification is based upon the unilateral decision of President Carter. Plaintiffs in the suit contend that the American chief executive does not have such power.
The question concerned the Taiwan Relations Act passed by the Congress and signed by President Truman. Mr. Clark had asked if the provisions of the act provided "broader protection" than before, particularly against economic boycott or blockade by the Chinese Communists. President Chiang answered: "I feel that the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty was important to the Republic of China and to the United States. In particular, when we look back at the time - in 1954 - when we signed the' treaty with the United States (and I was involved in the negotiating process leading up to the treaty) it was clear that the United States felt the need for some kind of security arrangement. When we compare the situation in 1954 and that of 1978, there doesn't seem to have been much change, especially in terms of the American defense posture in this part of the world.
"For the good of the United States as well as of the Republic of China, this treaty should be kept in effect.
But the United States decided to terminate it, and President Carter has already announced his intention to terminate it at the end of this year. Now Congress has passed an act saying that the United States continues to be concerned about the security of the Republic of China. I think that's something that's necessary. The United States must remain concerned about the security and stability of the Republic of China because that is very important in terms of the U.S. strategic position in this part of the world. The purpose of the Mutual Defense Treaty was exactly in that context.
"I want to emphasize that when the Vietnam War was over, people talked about the so-called domino theory. If something serious happened in the Taiwan Straits and the U.S. lost its presence in this part of the world, then the damage to the security of the world would be much more serious than the fall of Vietnam - and it would cause serious defense problems to Japan, the Philippines, Singapore and other countries in the region."
Some American commentaries have suggested that Red China has too many preoccupations to consider military action against the Republic of China. Mr. Clark mentioned Vietnam, Cambodia, the Soviet Union and the "four modernizations."
According to our understanding," President Chiang said, "the Chinese Communist military action against Vietnam caused more casualties than Communist China first expected. They had, according to our information, more than 30,000 killed or wounded, which was more than they had anticipated. They thought they would have an easy time moving into Vietnam, but in fact it turned out not to be so easy.
"Talking with an American visitor, Communist Chinese vice premier Li Hsien-nien mentioned that the military action was not an end to the conflict with Vietnam but rather the beginning of a long, protracted involvement. If Vietnam becomes more stabilized and if Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos become a base for Soviet power in the area, I don't think the Chinese Communists would just sit with their hands folded. It is a complicated situation and there is no easy solution to the problem (of Hanoi-Peiping relations). The negotiations going on now are less peace talks than war talks.
"As to the 'four modernizations,' the Chinese Communists themselves understand that it won't be easy to achieve such an ambitious venture. Why, then, did they announce such an ambitious program? The purpose was simply to fool the Americans and other foreigners - to attract their attention. The same is true of the 'big character posters' on Democracy Wall. The 'four modernizations' were designed to give the outside world the impression that the mainland was going to turn into a huge market.
"Regarding the posters, Teng Hsiao-ping was not trying to foster a real democratic movement but only wanted a show window so that foreigners would believe that mainland China was becoming more democratized and modernized. But, in fact, no country can be modernized unless it can first modernize its thinking and its political system. Unless Communist China modernizes its thinking and its political system, it can ever succeed with the 'four modernizations.' So I don't think the 'four modernizations' can have any effect on us."
Over and over again, President Chiang and other leaders of the Republic of China are asked whether the Republic of China might not negotiate with the Chinese Communists and enter into trade, postal and other relations. As always, his answer is emphatically in the negative. He went on to tell Mr. Clark: "I would like to call the attention of our friends to the fact that any 'contacts' or 'ties' would just be a tool used by the Chinese Communists to undermine our psychological defense against Communism. We don't want to help them undermine our own defenses."
Several negotiations have been carried out between the National Government and the Communists at various times. In the 1920s, the Communists promised to respect the government's authority and accept its discipline. For a time it used this pretense as a facade for boring from within the Kuomintang and attempting to seize power. Later the Communists were represented at Chungking during the conflict with Japan. But instead of using their forces against the Japanese, the Communists avoided combat and built up their strength for the postwar struggle against the Government. In the negotiations sponsored by the United States through George Marshall, the Communists sought one concession after another. Each time they gained ground, their price for "peace on Communist terms" rose a little higher. In the end, the National Government moved to Taiwan in order to carry on the struggle for Chinese freedom and democracy. That is where the contest rests now and why President Chiang must continue to reject all Communist overtures from the mainland.
Mr. Clark suggested that the Republic of China was showing flexibility by accepting an Olympic Games arrangement of "one China, two commit tees." The President pointed out that Free China's "guiding principle is that we are now a member country and we want to stay within the Olympic organization. A decision was made by the International Olympic Committee that they would have two committees - an Olympic Committee, Taipei, and an Olympic Committee, Peiping. That was their decision, not one made by us. Our policy is simply to preserve our membership in the International Olympic Committee, and it can't be interpreted that we have made a compromise on the issue of 'one China.' "
The chief of the Time Hongkong bureau said outsiders had been impressed by the patriotism and cohension on Taiwan after the U.S. derecognition. He noted that the people of the Republic of China had contributed more than US$84 mil lion (up to that time) to an emergency defense fund, and asked whether the Washington-Peiping "normalization" had not had some "positive aspects."
President Chiang responded that great significance was attached to the donation campaign not merely because of "the impressive figures, even though they are far beyond the government's expectations, but that so many ordinary citizens made contributions. There were many heartwarming and moving stories. For example, a cook who had saved up all his life to buy an expensive Omega watch donated the watch to the defense fund. In Hualien, a city councilman donated all his property, even including his house. Some old ladies donated all their jewelry, and a taxi driver contributed a whole month's income. There were thousands of such moving stories, which touched me very much."
At the time of the Carter Red China recognition announcement, the Republic of China was nearing elections for candidates at the local, provincial and national levels. These were postponed, and Mr. Marsh asked why.
President Chiang replied: "The main reason why the election was postponed was not that the government couldn't have controlled the situation if the election had been held. But during an election campaign there must be many differences of opinion aired. We didn't want to see such arguments become a destabilizing force in society. When stability has been fully restored, the elections will be held. Among those campaigning were many who were very critical of the government. In the aftermath of the events of December 16, those people might have been beaten up by patriotic crowds. We didn't want that to happen."
In response to another question, the President went on to say that the government has gone ahead with domestic reforms despite the U.S. "normalization of relations" with Red China. Such reforms included "reassignment of the judicial branch of government. Much of our administrative structure comes from traditional Chinese practice and was not a creation of the National Government. But now, because of new requirements and new demands, we shall continue the Ministry of Justice under the executive branch but shift the court system to a separate branch." This accords with the American custom of separating the administration of justice from the application of justice through the courts.
Asked to convey a message to the world four months after the U.S. derecognition of the Republic of China, President Chiang said: "I am always optimistic. My philosophy is that the more difficulties we encounter, the more we become united. As long as we work hard, we can overcome whatever difficulties we meet along the way. In a speech I gave recently, I emphasized three points. The first thing we must do is to establish stability and ensure our survival. After that we can concentrate on development, and finally we shall be able to attain victory.
"Through your magazine, I should like the American people to realize that their genuine, true friends are here in this country. I have every confidence that we can continue our friendship with our American friends, and we shall do every thing possible on our part to deserve the confidence of the American people. There is a Chinese expression that no one can wield a knife to cut the ties between two close friends. When I was a young man, I had a great teacher, Mr. Wu Chih-huei. When I complained about all the problems I faced, he responded: 'What are you here for, if not to solve such problems.'"
In an article accompanying the interview, Time said in part: "In a back alley in Taipei on April 16, a new era began in American diplomacy. Fifty former staffers of the U.S. embassy in Taipei quietly opened the American Institute in Taiwan taking over quarters that had once been occupied by the U.S. military. In the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by Congress in March, the institute is described as 'a nongovernmental entity incorporated under the laws of the District of Colombia.' In fact, it carries out virtually all of the functions of the old U.S. embassy, which closed after Washington normalized relations with (Peiping) and broke off diplomatic ties with the Republic of China.
"The U.S. decision last December to recognize (Peiping) was greeted with outrage and dismay in Taiwan. President Chiang Ching-kuo denounced the move as a betrayal, saying that never before had the U.S. severed diplomatic relations with an ally ...
"Five months after the painful break in relations, Taiwan not only seems to have absorbed the blow but to be more confident than ever of its future. Privately (Free Chinese) officials admit that the U.S. move has even had a number of unexpected benefits. The opening of the euphemistically named institute, for example, may encourage other nations that do not recognize the Republic of China to establish a quasi-diplomatic presence on the island in the hope of not unduly antagonizing (Peiping). Says one senior (Free Chinese) official: 'There are a number of people in Taipei who feel the institute might be used as a blueprint for other important free nations that now have no relations with us.'
"(Free Chinese) officials note with satisfaction that no other nation followed the U.S. lead in breaking relations with the (Republic of China). They also allege that Washington encouraged South Korea to recognize (Peiping); instead, Seoul showed its commitment to Taiwan by sending its foreign minister to Taipei on an official visit. Only 21 countries, mostly Latin American and African, still have diplomatic relations with the Republic of China; they include such important trading partners as South Africa and oil-rich Saudi Arabia. Since the break in relations with the U.S., in fact, there has been only one major change on the Taipei diplomatic scene: Uruguay, former represented by a charge d'affaires, now has an ambassador.
"Underlying Taiwan's optimism about the future is the island's burgeoning economic strength. Last year the republic had a 12.8% real growth in gross national product, based largely on a foreign trade of $23.7 billion, greater than that of the mainland. Two-way trade with the U.S. amounted to $7.4 billion, making Taiwan America's eighth largest trading partner. Total foreign investment, mainly from the U.S. and Japan, is $2 billion ... Some American companies, including Ford, Chrysler, Bechtel and Westinghouse, are plowing new money into Taiwan. At the end of 1978, Taiwan's foreign exchange re serves stood at $6.5 billion - not bad for a nation of only 17 million. Unemployment is a tiny 1.2% of the working population. Says Economic Affairs Minister Chang Kwang-shih: 'I sense that American businessmen think that some of the uncertainties have been removed and that the environment here is one that is conducive to investment. My main problem is to keep 'our economy from growing too fast. We are striving for growth with stability.'
"Barring an unforeseen blowup with (Peiping), the Republic of China will probably continue on its profitable and stable course for some years to come. Four things could upset this optimistic outlook and inspire (Peiping) to resolve the Taiwan question. The first would be a declaration of independence by Taiwan, which would end once and for all the myth of 'one China.' ... The second would be a threat by Taipei to play its so-called Russian card, seeking Soviet aid to balance the threat from (Red) China. (President Chiang has repeatedly denied that such a card could ever be played, and Time said "his animosity to Communism in any form makes this course seem unlikely.") The third factor is Taiwan's continued refusal to negotiate better relations with the mainland. (Red) China's vice premier, Deng Xiaoping (Teng Hsiao-ping), has cited this hostile attitude as one which could cause (Peiping) to take drastic action. Finally, if Taiwan were diplomatically isolated and tom internally over (Red) China's offer of a peaceful reunion, (Peiping) might decide that invasion was a practical alternative for settling the issue. Given Taiwan's booming economy and its impressive armed forces, this last alternative seems remote.."
One Taipei commentary noted that in the interview, President Chiang had observed that the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of China and the United States should be kept in force. The commentary went on to say: The reassurance provided by the U.S. Congress is important and valuable. Some observers have said that because this is up-to-date, it is better than the treaty. Is a statement or observation of the Congress - even one signed by the president of the United States - to be preferred to a treaty negotiated and signed by the executive branch and approved by two-thirds of the members of the Senate? That is doubtful.
The treaty, it has been said, is only as strong and as valid as the president of the United States wishes to make it. That is also true of a Congressional declaration. Furthermore, treaties put the credibility of the United States on the line in the international community. If the United States cannot be trusted to keep its treaty commitments, it cannot be trusted at all.
Even now, with the Republic of China on notice that the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States will be terminated at the end of this year, the governments of other countries are quietly taking a hard look at their own agreements with Washington. Never in its history has the United States repudiated a treaty with a partner which had lived up to all its terms. Furthermore, this was done not by the vote of the Congress and not with the advice and consent of the Senate (as in the adoption of a treaty), but by the executive himself, acting alone and without meaningful consultation with the legislative branch.
In fact and with sound legal reason, President Carter's action is being challenged in the courts in a lawsuit brought by Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona and 24 other members of the Congress. If the Supreme Court of the United States should hold that the president does not have the power to terminate a treaty unilaterally, the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of China and the United States will remain in effect unless President Carter can persuade the Senate or the full Congress to approve the termination. In keeping with President Chiang's views, it may be hoped that President Carter will change his attitude in the event the court judgment goes against him. The treaty is important. It is superior to any statement by Congress and should be perpetuated.
As President Chiang remarked, the loss of Taiwan would be far more serious than that of Vietnam. The very existence of free Japan, the Philippines, Singapore and several other countries would be placed in jeopardy. This treaty is no one sided guarantee of assistance to Taiwan in the event of Chinese Communist attack. It is a two way street on which the military forces of the Republic of China are ready to move to the assistance of the United States and its other friends and allies in this part of the world. The strategically valuable air and naval bases of Taiwan are at the disposal of U.S. forces in time of need. These were used to good advantage, in fact, during the war in Vietnam.
President Chiang pointed out that the Republic of China is a thorn in the side of the Chinese Communists. This is a political as well as a military matter. Invasion of Vietnam may not have been opposed by any large number of people on the mainland. An attempt to invade Taiwan would give the mainland people a chance to rise up in an anti-war movement that could destroy Communism. As the chief executive said, war between the Chinese Communists and Vietnam is an entirely different matter from war between the Chinese Communists and the free people of the Republic of China.
Although the border between the Chinese mainland and Vietnam offers no natural barriers of importance, the Chinese Communists had trouble marching across it and didn't get very far in their drive toward the Red River plain. To get at Taiwan, the Communists would have to cross the 100-mile barrier of the Taiwan Straits and then undertake amphibious attacks along a hostile coast. President Chiang has estimated the possible losses of the invaders at from I million to 3 million, and has mentioned the immense logistical and transport problem that would face the Communists. However, Chiang Ching-kuo has pointed out to the United States and the rest of the Free World that Red China can never modernize with out bringing its thinking and political system into the 20th century.
In the chief executive's view, the "modernizations" and the big character posters calling for democracy and human rights were basically for the purpose of deceiving the Americans and other foreigners. Chinese Communism seeks to give the impression that it is changing and becoming more reasonable, and that this will mean the world's biggest market for the free countries. This is a sham and a delusion. Then, too, Teng Hsiao-ping still faces the fact that the "gang of four" has not been ·eradicated. He hoped to use the mainland hunger for freedom and democracy as a weapon against the gang, only to find the weapon trained on his own tyranny.
President Chiang's Time interview has thrown fresh light on some of the Republic of China's problems and the Free World's role in their solutions. His increasing availability to the mass media of the free world is helpful in making the position of this country known, and in keeping old friends and winning new ones.